On August 03, 2009 the Global Network for the Forecasting of Earthquakes, built on a principally new technology, started functioning at full scale. Three automatic digital “ATROPATENA” earthquake prediction stations established in Baku (Azerbaijan), Islamabad (Pakistan) and Yogyakarta (Indonesia) are combined into a global network and continuously transmit information regarding unusual gravitational precursors of earthquakes to the central database in the USA. Based on all that data, the Global Network allows predicting earthquakes all over the Eastern Hemisphere with a 90% probability. The author of the new technology, Vice President of the International Academy of Science H&E, General Director of Global Network for the Forecasting of Earthquakes, a well-known scientist and Academician, Professor Elchin Khalilov has provided some detail on the new technology.
On August 03, 2009, the third international earthquake prediction station, ATROPATENA-ID, installed in the Islamic University of Indonesia in Yogyakarta province was successfully put into operation. From that moment, the heart of the world’s first Global Network for the Forecasting of Earthquakes started to beat. The first two stations were set up in the Scientific Research Institute for Prognosis and Study of Earthquakes, Baku, Azerbaijan in 2007 and the National Physics Center, Islamabad, Pakistan in February 2009.
On the photo’s left – His Royal Highness Sultan and Governor of Indonesian Special Region of Yogyakarta Hamengku Buwono X, on the right – Vice President of the International Academy of Science H&E (Innsbruck, Austria), General Director of Global Network for the Forecasting of Earthquakes, Academician Elchin Khalilov, discussing together development prospects of the new earthquake prediction technology.
On August 04, 2009, signing of the protocol on delivery of the ATROPATENA-ID International Earthquake Prediction Station to the province’s government took place, the protocol being signed by the Yogyakarta Governor, His Royal Highness Sultan of Yogyakarta Province Hamengku Buwono X. and Vice President of the International Academy of Science H&E (Innsbruck, Austria), General Director of the Global Network for the Forecasting of Earthquakes, Professor Elchin Khalilov. On the same day, an agreement was signed between the Government of Yogyakarta Province and the Global Network for the Forecasting of Earthquakes on connecting station ATROPATENA-ID to the Global Network.
His Royal Highness Sultan and Governor of Indonesian Special Region of
Yogyakarta Hamengku Buwono X and General Director of Global Network for
the Forecasting of Earthquakes (GNFE), Academician Elchin Khalilov
discuss the Global Network’s prospective development plan.
The Global Network connects together “ATROPATENA” international automatic digital earthquake prediction stations based on application of a physical principle never used before. It is an absolutely new geophysical tool which makes it possible to implement a constant three-dimensional monitoring of gravitational field variations. Three to seven days before a strong earthquake whose epicenter is more than 1000km away, ATROPATENA stations register some low-frequency gravitational signals and determine the direction towards the future earthquake’s epicenter. The operational experience of the first ATROPATENA station, functioning in Baku since 2007, shows that the station has been registering gravitational variations before strong earthquakes with an accuracy exceeding 90%. For the first time in the world practice, a precise statistical indicator for short-term earthquake prediction has been obtained. The physical principle of the ATROPATENA station is patented in Geneva.
ATROPATENA stations register gravitational precursors of strong remote earthquakes, caused by tectonic waves emitted by an imminent strong earthquake’s focus if tectonic stress in it reaches some critical point.
Full members of the Global Network owning ATROPATENA stations have full access to the data registered by all international stations in real time; the data is continuously transmitted from all of the stations to the central database on the Control Server located in the USA. Access to the Global Network’s central database is provided via the Internet.
During a press-conference in Yogyakarta Province Governor’s house. From right to left:
Rector of the Islamic University of Indonesia Prof. Edyu Suandi Hamid, Yogyakarta Province Regional Secretary Tri Harju Ismadji and General Director of Global Network for the Forecasting of Earthquakes Academician Elchin Khalilov
All ATROPATENA stations operate in a standalone mode and do not require any service staff to be involved. ATROPATENA international stations’ personnel carry out scientific research, work on data analysis, and participate in the earthquake prediction process after taking a special training course on handling the stations and analyzing the data obtained, followed by receipt of Global Network certificates.
Signing of protocol on delivery of ATROPATENA-ID international earthquake prediction
station to the Government of Yogyakarta. Center – Yogyakarta Province Regional
Secretary Tri Harju Ismadji, to the right – Vice President of the International
Academy of Science Academician Elchin Khalilov, to the left – Rector of the
Islamic University of Indonesia Prof. Edyu Suandi Hamid.
The Global Network for the Forecasting of Earthquakes (GNFE) is governed by the General Director who is also the Chairman of the GNFE Board. The GNFE Board consists of representatives of all international stations and associate members of the Global Network who do not possess stations but have a limited access right to the central database.
Recording system of the international station ATROPATENA-ID, established
in Indonesian Province of Yogyakarta
Direct support for the Global Network for the Forecasting of Earthquakes activity is provided by the International Academy of Science H&E (Innsbruck, Austria) and World Organization for Scientific Cooperation (WOSCO, UK).
The Pakistani Government and Pakistani Academy of Science are actively promoting development of the new earthquake prediction technology as well.
During the first GNFE Board session, it was decided to establish an international scientific journal titled “Earthquake Prediction” and to annually publish a multivolume book dedicated to the results of earthquake prediction by the Global Network. The WOSCO SWB International scientific publishing house has undertaken to publish both the journal and the book.
All forecasts by the Global Network are forwarded only to the governments of the Network member countries. The Global Network personnel are strictly prohibited from passing the forecast information on possible earthquakes to mass media or otherwise disclosing such information.
Presently, there are some negotiations underway with governments of several countries on their admission as members to the Global Network for the Forecasting of Earthquakes and delivery of ATROPATENA international stations. The issue of stationing the Global Network central headquarters in one of the European countries is also under consideration.
The Global Network’s core consisting of three ATROPATENA stations keeps the seismic situation all over the Eastern Hemisphere continuously monitored. Startup of the fourth ATROPATENA station is planned for September 2009. In 2010, we intend to create the Global Network infrastructure for monitoring the seismic situation in the Western Hemisphere as well.
ATROPATENA CRYSTAL station for the forecasting of Earthquakes